I don't think you can expect a buy the pound to the dollar advice from these guys.
The article is about what scares a selection of reputable market observers and does a pretty good job of telling their story.
As a casual observer I think it is obvious that we are at the end of a good long run. And I were to make a bet I would say that things will become obviously bad just after the US election.
Whether it will because of China, a rate hike, an inflation hike or some political event is really of secondary importance.
>> As a casual observer I think it is obvious that we are at the end of a good long run.
The economy has been incredibly weak for a long time.
- Economic growth has been close to zero for several years, and never above 3% in the last decade.
- The real unemployment numbers are closer to 9.7% percent when you factor in people who stopped looking for work. By comparison, Clinton's averaged around 5.1% and Bush's was around 5.3%.
- Our GDP to Debt ratio is 78% and climbing. It's at 104$ if you include external debt.
- The Budget Deficit Widened to 3.2% so far in 2016 and will continue to rise as more Baby Boomer retire and start taking social security payments.
The good news is that the dollar is getting stronger, and the housing market is finally coming out its recession which will help a vast number of industries that have been hit hard since the 08' collapse.
It hasn't been a very good run, but at this point I think it could break either way depending on how some of the above issues are addressed by a new president - regardless of which party gets in.
The article is about what scares a selection of reputable market observers and does a pretty good job of telling their story.
As a casual observer I think it is obvious that we are at the end of a good long run. And I were to make a bet I would say that things will become obviously bad just after the US election.
Whether it will because of China, a rate hike, an inflation hike or some political event is really of secondary importance.
Death needs a cause as they say.